Russia's attack on Georgia

[RebelAzn]

What does it mean for rest of the world? Will the USA get involved? Last I checked Georgia has no oil I know of. What does this mean for the Olympics? The interviews I have seen from Georgia basically stated that they are defenseless against Russian air attack.

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL937294920080810

[Heyyu]

In my opinion, I think the Russia government is trying to return to its Soviet Union days. There has been marked aggression by the Russian government in the past few years with trying to restrict and tighten the political/media freedom within the country (although that is harder to do now in the internet age).

To be quite honest, I could see a new Cold War brewing again with a revamped Russia that has learned from its mistakes during the Soviet Union age. In this new age, wars are no longer fought with weapons but with the economy. For instance, Russia has been trying to use its large natural energy reserves to gain trade leverage with other countries. While I don't think Russia will ever go to direct war with the USA (which would be suicidal for both countries and their economies), I do think Russia will take a page out of China's playbook and use more passive & subtle economic subterfuge against the USA in the future. The early part of the 21st century should be quite interesting indeed.

[nskripchun]

Sad that's it's taking place during the Olympics. Supposedly the country is an ally of the US and has received military training from US armed forces.

They're trying to get some sort of truce going, but things don't look so good.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/10/content_9118308.htm

UN Security Council deadlocked over South Ossetia truce call
Special report: South Ossetia crisis

UNITED NATIONS, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) -- The UN Security Council failed again Saturday in its attempt to agree on a truce call for the parties involved in the bitter fighting in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia.

On Saturday afternoon, the 15-member body concluded its third round of an emergency session in the past 48 hours without adopting a statement that would have called for a cease-fire.

In a briefing to the council at the closed-door meeting, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet said hostilities are continuing in Georgia and there have been a "substantial number of casualties, refugees and destruction."

Citing reports from UN peacekeepers in the region, Mulet expressed concerns that the conflict may spread into Abkhazia, another rebel enclave inside Georgia.

Belgian UN Ambassador Jan Grauls, the council's president this month, told reporters that several council members expressed "grave concern on the further deterioration of the situation in Georgia."

"It is clear that the conflict has now expanded in other areas than only South Ossetia," he said.

When asked about the council's attempt to call for a cease-fire, Grauls said it would be nearly impossible for the council to take any actions at the moment.

"Regrettably I have come to the conclusion that it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to find common ground within the council on a draft statement to the press," Grauls said.

The Security Council had met late night Thursday and early Friday but failed to agree on a Russia-drafted statement that would call on Georgia and South Ossetian rebels to renounce the use of force.

Georgia, backed by the United States and some other council members, rejected the wording calling for the renunciation of force.

Later on Friday afternoon, the council failed for the second time after holding open and closed consultations to discuss a revised version which would instead call on the warring parties to "show restraint and to refrain from any further acts of violence or force."

After Saturday's consultations, Alejandro Wolff, the U.S. deputy ambassador to the United Nations, urged Russia to stop its military offensive, withdraw its troops from Georgia and accept international mediation efforts.

"The first thing that has to happen is that violence has got to stop and that foreign forces will have to be withdrawn," Wolff told reporters.

But "Russia somehow thinks it is exempt from all the calls to cease violence, from all the calls to withdraw," Wolff said.

Russian UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said that Georgia should first withdraw its forces from South Ossetia and sign with the rebels an agreement on the non-use of force, and "then we can talk about a variety of other things including military and political arrangements."

On the council's failure to pass a cease-fire statement, Churkin blamed some council members for "procrastinating and attaching all sort of conditions" to the Russian draft.

"Unfortunately, the Security Council has lately been behind events," he said. "I am not sure we are now at the point when the Security Council can pass a document or even a press statement which would be meaningful."

South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s and was governed by a secessionist government since then although its independence has not been internationally recognized.

On Friday, Georgian troops began a military action against South Ossetia's forces in an attempt to re-establish control over the region. In response, Russian troops moved into the region to fight the Georgian forces. Its warplanes also bombed the region.

Russia said the two-day conflict has killed 1,500 people and that the death toll is expected to rise.

[RebelAzn]

And here people are screaming how China handle things in Tibet. Russia simply launched their force on a full scale attack. Georgia is like a helpless sitting duck. Thousands of people already dead in only couple of days fighting. More death in the incoming weeks. This could get ugly real quick. I wonder if Russia has decided to retake Georgia back as part of its territory.

[SamuraiJack]

Oil Pipeline, NATO.

[Heyyu]

And here people are screaming how China handle things in Tibet. Russia simply launched their force on a full scale attack. Georgia is like a helpless sitting duck. Thousands of people already dead in only couple of days fighting. More death in the incoming weeks. This could get ugly real quick. I wonder if Russia has decided to retake Georgia back as part of its territory.

You know what, I also read that Poland & Ukraine have been assisting Georgia with its communications. I think this is just the beginning. The fact that Russia openly goes to war against one of its former Soviet territories should send a chill down the international community.

It still hasn't been that long since the collapse of the Soviet Union. And I don't think that Russia has ever fully accepted its defeat and loss of territories & sovereignty, which was a humiliation for the Kremlin government (whose many members still serve in the current Russian government).

[nikitron]

So, listen.
I'm ukrainian.
Lets compare USA actions in IRAQ & Russians actions in Osetia:
1. USA went to far country about oil. Russia answer to Georgian fire on russians in Osetia (boundary country).
2. USA had aim - to destroy totalitarian (what rights they have to do???). Russia have aim - to stop Georgian aggression against Russians in Osetia.


It historically became, that Georgia was divided. So, in Osetia live mostly Russians. But Saakashwilly wish power (what for? I don't know).
Ukrainian politics ready to sold weapon to any country. It is a fact. & Georgia buy weapon from Ukraine & kill Russians. Isn't it disproportionate?
It is historically, that Georgia yield tirans. For example, Stalin - Georgian.


& last - i have friend from Osetia. She say, that Georgian simply go to street & violent (force) women. It is natural for most of Georgians. But some of them still intellectuals but seat at home, don't protest, because know (see) flock's way of life.

P.S.
It is hard to see & read in CNN and others media, that Russia began. It is not right. Russia protect it's citizens. USA don't protect Americans?

[RebelAzn]

So, listen.
I'm ukrainian.
Lets compare USA actions in IRAQ & Russians actions in Osetia:
1. USA went to far country about oil. Russia answer to Georgian fire on russians in Osetia (boundary country).
2. USA had aim - to destroy totalitarian (what rights they have to do???). Russia have aim - to stop Georgian aggression against Russians in Osetia.


It historically became, that Georgia was divided. So, in Osetia live mostly Russians. But Saakashwilly wish power (what for? I don't know).
Ukrainian politics ready to sold weapon to any country. It is a fact. & Georgia buy weapon from Ukraine & kill Russians. Isn't it disproportionate?
It is historically, that Georgia yield tirans. For example, Stalin - Georgian.


& last - i have friend from Osetia. She say, that Georgian simply go to street & violent (force) women. It is natural for most of Georgians. But some of them still intellectuals but seat at home, don't protest, because know (see) flock's way of life.

P.S.
It is hard to see & read in CNN and others media, that Russia began. It is not right. Russia protect it's citizens. USA don't protect Americans?

I am just wondering if Russia should have gave Georgia some warning before bombing away. Unfortunately many innocent people are dying because of this with more each day.

In every country there will always be some minorities who demand independence. History has showed most of these all ended in violence with tons of death. This is the part most people don't seem to get when it comes to all these people promoting separatist movements.

[wuwei]

Stratfor's intelligence report on this:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/intelligence_guidance_conflict_south_ossetia

[RebelAzn]

This video from CNBC kind of explained it. It is all about the oil. Bush just made a strong statement. Now that oil supply to Europe could be threaten, would NATO act if Russia refuse to give in to the peace talk?

http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&vid=639e8169-8362-4722-b4fb-f0f4a9fc0a71

Since it is all about the oil, USA is involved in the middle of it all. This article also cleared a few things up.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/georgia.russia3

[nskripchun]

Another article... it ties into the US involvement in Iraq because Georgia, as a US ally, received military aid from the US in return for lending Georgian troops and public political support.

The author seems to speculate that US aid may have made Georgia too bold - even with the influx of US military training, and US/Israeli-made weapons, Georgia is still no match for the Russian military (which despite American assumptions, is still formidable and experienced... Chechnya, anyone?).

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008104837_assess11.html


Inevitable Russia-Georgia war brewed for years
By C.J. CHIVERS
The New York Times

As the bloody military mismatch between Russia and Georgia unfolded over the past four days, even the main players were surprised by how quickly small border skirmishes escalated into a full-fledged war.

Several U.S. and Georgian officials said that unlike the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, when Soviet forces massed before the attack, Russia had not appeared poised for an invasion last week. As late as last Wednesday, Russian diplomats had been pressing for negotiations.

"It doesn't look like this was premeditated, with a massive staging of equipment," one senior U.S. official said. "Until the night before the fighting, Russia seemed to be playing a constructive role."

But while the Russian invasion had caught Georgia and the West by surprise, there had been signs for years that they had methodically, if quietly, prepared for conflict.

Several other long-term factors had also contributed to the possibility of war. They included the Kremlin's military successes in Chechnya, which gave Russia the latitude it needed to free up troops to cross its borders, and the United States' exuberant support for President Mikhail Saakashvili, a figure loathed by the Kremlin personally and politically.

Moreover, by preparing Georgian soldiers for duty in Iraq, the United States appeared to have helped embolden, if inadvertently, Georgia to enter a fight it could not win.

U.S. officials and a military officer who have dealt with Georgia said privately that as a result, the war risked becoming a foreign-policy catastrophe for the United States, whose image and authority in the region were in question after it was unable to aid Georgia or restrain the Kremlin while the Russian army pressed its attack.

Laying the groundwork

Russia's bureaucratic and military groundwork was laid even before Saakashvili came to power in 2004 and positioned himself as one of the most strident critics of the Kremlin.

Under Vladimir Putin's presidency, Russia had granted citizenship and passports to adult residents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the much larger separatist region on the Black Sea. The West had been skeptical of the validity of Russia's handing out passports by the thousands to citizens of another nation.

But whatever the legal merits, the Kremlin had laid the foundation for one of its public-relations arguments for invading Georgia: Its army was coming to the aid of Russian citizens under foreign attack.

In the ensuing years, even as Russia issued warnings, Saakashvili grew bolder. There were four regions out of Georgian control when he took office in 2004, but he restored two smaller regions, Ajaria in 2004 and the upper Kodori Gorge in 2006, with few deaths.

Russia, however, began retaliating against Georgia in many ways.

It cut off air service and mail between the two countries, closed the border and refused Georgian exports. And by the time the Kodori gorge was back in Georgian control, Russia had also consolidated its hold over Chechnya and its military, enabling Russia to garrison its forces and turn its attention elsewhere.

Tension over Georgian leader

Simultaneously, as the contest of wills between Georgia and Russia intensified, the strong support of the United States for Saakashvili created diplomatic tensions in Washington.

Some envoys considered Saakashvili a politician of unusual promise who could reorder Georgia along the lines of a Western democracy.

Others worried that both Saakashvili's persona and platforms presented an implicit challenge to the Kremlin, and that Saakashvili ultimately would draw the United States and Russia into arguments the United States did not want.

This feeling was especially true among Russian specialists, who said that whatever the merits of Saakashvili's positions, his impulsiveness and nationalism sometimes outstripped his common sense.

In his wooing of Washington as he came to power, Saakashvili firmly embraced the missions of the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq. His rise coincided neatly with a swelling U.S. need for political support and foreign soldiers in Iraq, and his offer of troops was matched with a Pentagon effort to overhaul Georgia's forces, from bottom to top.

At senior levels, the United States helped rewrite Georgian military doctrine and train its commanders and staff officers. At the squad level, U.S. Marines and soldiers trained Georgian soldiers in the fundamentals of fighting a war.

Georgia, meanwhile, began re-equipping its forces — with Israeli and U.S. firearms, new convoys of vehicles and stockpiles of ammunition.

The public goal was to nudge Georgia toward NATO military standards. Privately, Georgian officials welcomed the martial coaching and buildup, and made clear they considered participation in Iraq as a sure way to prepare the Georgian military for "national reunification" — the local euphemism of choice for restoring Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgian control.

All of these policies collided late last week. One U.S. official who covers Georgian affairs said everything had gone wrong.

Saakashvili had acted rashly, he said, and had given Russia the grounds to invade. The invasion, he said, was chilling, disproportionate and brutal, and it was grounds for a strong censure. But the immediate question was how far Russia would go in putting Georgia back into what it sees as Georgia's place. There was no sign throughout the weekend of Kremlin willingness to negotiate. A national humiliation was under way.

Copyright © 2008 The Seattle Times Company

[RebelAzn]

Another article... it ties into the US involvement in Iraq because Georgia, as a US ally, received military aid from the US in return for lending Georgian troops and public political support.

The author seems to speculate that US aid may have made Georgia too bold - even with the influx of US military training, and US/Israeli-made weapons, Georgia is still no match for the Russian military (which despite American assumptions, is still formidable and experienced... Chechnya, anyone?).

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2008104837_assess11.html

I think Georgia really underestimated Russia. This is sending chills down European's back. This is also a wake up call to all those war mongers in the USA who think USA can just bomb anyone and destroy them. Russia is no Iraq. Russia is not someone USA should even think about getting involve with in a war. This gonna be a nightmare. I think Europeans are just too scared of Russia to act. USA gonna be forced to play the bad guy to defend Georgia. The question is will NATO act or will the USA has to act on its own? Another question is will USA send its force to help if the oil pipe is threaten? If USA does go help Georgia, there could be many more death than war against Iraq in matter of days. A war against Russia could get ugly real quick.

[howstrange]

I've been predicting Russian Military aggression for a while now. Russia is like pre-ww2 Germany. It's failed democratic capitalism, after the humiliating cold war collapse has turned Russia towards heavy ethnocentric/nationalism. You don't have to know the details to the see the patterns of Nazi Germany repeating itself here. IF things go well for Russia in Georgia, you can pretty much mark this as the beginning of Russian expansionism.

[Alex]

Public appeal regarding policy supporting the Georgian government in committing genocide on South Ossetia’s people.

On August, the 8th 2008 the President of Georgia declared the opening of hostilities in the zone of conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia. At 4.20 a.m. began the assault of Tskhinvali (South Ossetia’s capital city populated by over 30 000 people) accompanied by use of multiple launch rocket system GRAD, tank and artillery force. This kind of military weaponry has been used to affect the entire city, regardless of object type, whether they are homes, hospitals, universities or other civil targets. Georgia troops have been also shelling on squares and slaughtering the civilians all over the city. By 4.40 p.m. of August, the 8th, the city of Tskhinvali was completely destroyed. By the most conservative estimate there have been killed at least 2000 civilians. It was reported only afterward what has been happening that day in the peaceful city as well as in surrounding area.

Particularly, there have been discovered the facts as follows:

According to Ylona Dzhioyeva, a resident of the Dmenes village, Georgian war planes have been conducting the bombing strikes on houses of civilians. Then the Georgian troops entered the village. Soldiers have been shooting at short range on women, children and old people, even on those who was trying to escape. The wounded were being shooted trough the heads. Only a few people from our village survived.

According to information submitted by refugees from South Ossetia: in one of the village of Znaursky area the Georgians burned several young women alive in the house, so refugees. “They forced them into the house like animals closed them up and set afire. In another place we saw a tank squashing an old woman and two little children who had been trying to escape. We also have seen an 18 month old child being slaughtered”.

During the battle near the Khetagurovo village the local old people wanted to shelter themselves in the St. Mary Blessed Virgin church. The Georgian soldiers burned them alive in the temple.

As it has been reported, the Georgian soldiers had taken a large group of young women from Khetagurovo village to an undisclosed location. We are still unaware about their fate.

“The bombing attacks and fire have been continuing for over three days. We were in the cellar and did not even dare to raise our heads. Many people tried to dispose of their children but apparently in most cases did not succeeded in evacuating them for we saw many children on the streets. It was even impossible to determine whether it was night or day because in fact the fire attacks have been continuing day in day out with minimum of intervals. They have been shelling using heavy artillery including MLRS GRAD. As the result, how it at least seemed to me no building remained undamaged. It was terrible. There was such a peal as if a flash of lightning had been striking at a short distance from me. After a while people did not even care anymore about explosions. Sure that it was abnormal”, so a Tskhinvali resident.

“I lived at the ninth floor. As the fire ceased again I have made upstairs to my flat and looked down out of the window I was taken aback by that unbelievable view. Instead of the city I have been observing nothing by endless fire and smoke. I was getting an impression as if they had attempted to raze the city to the ground on purpose. I would not wish even to my enemy to witness the things we saw. By now, in the city remained very few cars. But someone rumored it that there had been organizing some evacuating transport for those who were wishing to leave the city. But I don’t want to leave and will stay here”, so another Tskhinvali resident.

Beyond all doubt in case Russia had chosen to adhere to non interference policy in this situation the population of Tskhinvali would have been slaughtered entirely. Actions of Georgian troops confirm this assumption as well as the fact that Georgia in fact refused to open a humanitarian corridor for refugees who wanted to leave the city destroyed by Georgian militaries.

UN Security Council has proved to be fully incapable to act like pillar of international security for it failed to propose any reasonable settlement of the conflict. The Council’s reaction must have been prompt for it is the case when the fate of the whole nation is hanging in the balance. Nevertheless, on August, the 8th, 2008, the Security Council set against Russia’s proposal destined to condemn the use of military force as regards the Georgia-Ossetia conflict. It only expressed the deep concern regarding tension growth in this volatile area, whereas a reasonable decision of the Security Council could have prevented the conflict escalation.

USA and some of their European partners while affirming that Georgia’s territorial integrity must be preserved and pressing for pullout of Russian troops out of the conflict zone as well as sympathizing with policy pursued by the Georgian President, in fact thereby are condoning the crimes committed by Georgian government and, thus, assume responsibility of the events happening in the conflict area.

Military weaponry supplied by the NATO countries to Georgia is being used at present in killing and bloodshed performed in South Ossetia.

The world-wide mass media fails to give due attention to careful examination of the South Ossetia conflict–related question and thus hinders the arrangement of the conflict. Consequently, acting like this, the mass media are disputing the fact of their commitment to assertion of human rights and fundamental freedoms and, first of all, right for life.

The conflict coverage in many Western mass –media is far from be balanced and objective. So people are getting wrong impression on the reasons for the South Ossetia-Georgia conflict commencement. Inability of the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs to get message across to the world public opinion should not be considered as the ground for information support of regime guilty of bloodshed and genocide committed on the whole nation.

By now the Investigation Committee of the Russian Public Prosecutor’s Office regarding the crimes committed by Georgian high ranking officials initiated the criminal cases according to par. "а", "б", "е" Part Two, Article 105 of Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (the murder of two or more persons committed by a generally dangerous method).
Evidently, later on should be formed a tribunal for trial of this war actions.

It does not seem possible anymore to reach any agreement with the Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili for Russia does not negotiate with war criminals liable for bloodshed.

The present public appeal is to be deemed as requirement to conceive the democratic principles of universal respect for and observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms. Absence of these principles, in fact, makes the participants in political developments equal to regimes of Milošević in Serbia, those of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia.

[nottyboy]

I've been predicting Russian Military aggression for a while now. Russia is like pre-ww2 Germany. It's failed democratic capitalism, after the humiliating cold war collapse has turned Russia towards heavy ethnocentric/nationalism. You don't have to know the details to the see the patterns of Nazi Germany repeating itself here. IF things go well for Russia in Georgia, you can pretty much mark this as the beginning of Russian expansionism.

I was just telling something similar to my coworker yesterday. I don't know enough to say what they're actually going to do, but I'm pretty sure Russia sees itself as having a more important role to play in the world. The whole NATO situation is probably fueling some of this as well.

[zhangfei]

We've got to have a war before the U.S. presidential election, right? Randy Scheunemann? come on.

[DONKEY]

the news here would certainly make one believe that russia is the bad guy in this situation but i feel like there's something we're missing. there's almost always some angle to this that we can't see right away.
lets do a comparison here. Reagan was about to invade Iran over taking a few hostages in 1979. Did we all forget about this? about how 80% of americans were smelling blood and ready to go lead by Reagan? how short our memories are? In georgia, russian citizens were being killed.
from this perspective it's very easy to see why russia is taking action and would be able to call it a human rights crisis that they are intervening in.